A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions

Abstract Ten years, 16 fully coupled global models, and hundreds of research papers later, the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) monthly-to-seasonal prediction system is looking ahead to its second decade. The NMME comprises both real-time, initialized predictions a substantial database; retrospective real-time forecasts are archived freely available for development. Many U.S.-based international entities, private public, use data regional or otherwise tailored forecasts. system’s built-in evolution, with new models gradually replacing older ones, has been demonstrated improve skill 2-m temperature sea surface temperature, although precipitation remains difficult problem. This paper reviews some NMME-based contributions seasonal climate applications, progress on scientific understanding multimodel ensembles, techniques. Several prediction-oriented aspects explored, including model representation observed trends underprediction below-average temperature. We discuss potential directions, such as higher-resolution hybrid statistical–dynamical techniques, environmental hazards coastal flooding risk mosquito-borne diseases.